This application contains two copies of a CD-ROM with a copy of each of the Appendixes. The two CD-ROMSs are identical, and each of the files in the CD-ROMs are IBM MS-Windows operating system compatibility. The following files are contained in each of the CD-ROMs: Appendix_part1.txt, 28,169 bytes, created May 8, 2002; Appendix_part2.txt, 54,081 bytes, created May 8, 2002; and Appendix_part3.txt, 243,456 bytes, created May 8, 2002 which are hereby incorporated by reference.
The present invention generally relates to the automated collection and processing of project completion data relating to computer software development, and more particularly to the manipulation of the accumulated data through a Monte Carlo simulation in order to analyze and determine projected project completion based upon current information made available through accumulated data extracted through project monitoring and user input, if desired. Both projected project completion and projected potential development difficulties are ascertained in order to alert and/or apprize system users of current project status.
In accordance with the present invention, the foregoing objectives are met by a data extraction and manipulation process which employs a mathematical algorithm and knowledge base of rules to provide a prediction of anticipated project completion with enhanced accuracy. Data collection is accomplished through the use of data collectors specifically designed to extract data from tools utilized to accumulate data. Data is accumulated by the data collectors and then transferred to a computer system functioning as the application server. The data collectors are automated to gather data generated by the tools within the system organization. Accordingly, the collected data is stored on an application server for evaluation of the schedule for projected completion and project status, including estimated cost, available functionality, and quality levels.
The data extraction and manipulation process further meets the foregoing objectives by employing the aforementioned mathematical algorithm and applying the aformetioned knowledge base to provide the ability to alert system users to potential difficulties which may affect project completion prior to the occurrence of such difficulties in order for system users to be able to make necessary adjustments to minimize or prevent such projected difficulties from occurring. In a preferred embodiment of the invention, data collectors are used to obtain and accept project information stored on various computers on a corporate network, wherein the data collected is then subject to an algorithm, including the use of a Monte Carlo simulation, for prediction of project completion and scheduled delivery.
As a further embodiment of the invention, the present invention establishes a probability curve for the projected schedule of completion for each task defined as a concrete deliverable unit of work. The Monte Carlo simulation is conducted over a plurality of iterations. All simulations are run on the same set of data, which has been collected from all of the tools. The data obtained from the simulations is fitted on a probability curve for assigning a confidence level for project completion in view of the given task required to complete the project. The system may be utilized to generate simulations for additional projects which may be concurrently under production. Accordingly, the simulation algorithm may be applied for one specific project or multiple projects, or the user may specify for an analysis to be conducted on one or more specific projects.
Further features of the present invention, and the advantages offered thereby, are explained hereinafter with reference to specific examples illustrated in the accompanying drawings.